2017 saw shocking events in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Rapid political and economic reforms sent shockwaves of change through KSA. This year, these shock waves are expected to grow more. The recent expulsion of eleven princes along with other royals under the charges of corruption, was as unexpected in KSA’s politics as bringing the fifth ace in a poker deck. The rising crown prince, Muhammad Bin Salman’s Vision 2030 is another interesting development. It aspires to modernize and diversify Saudi society and economy. The social modernization of the country is evident through various examples. These include women driving cars, youth attending concerts, people going to cinemas, and the availability of greater economic opportunities. KSA also allowed their first jazz festival, which brings a fresh change. Bin Salman also vows to eradicate Islamic radicalism and, calls to “restore (moderate) Islam to its origin.”
Is the time ripe for social uplift in KSA?
Saudi Arabia is a nation where more than 60% of its population is under the age of 30 years. The ultra suppressive society surely makes this large faction of demography restless and anxious. Especially when a large chunk is not satisfied with economic limitations and social rigidity. Therefore, it seems fair that Bin Salman is popular among youth, especially women, due to his massive social and economic reforms. However, this widely asked question remains.
Is the time appropriate for the ongoing “Arab Spring” of Saudi Arabia?
There is still no clear answer to this. The reason for this ambiguity lies in the fact that these social structural changes are top-down in nature where a political elite is bringing rapid changes in the society. However, for a successful revolution, demand needs to be created at the bottom. Thorough mobilization occurs in a society that has a bottom-up approach.
Moreover, the over-ambitious approach of Bin Salman makes the plan vulnerable. He engages in offensive foreign policy, puts fellow royals in jail, brings Israel closer, and calls for the adoption of a moderate version of Islam, offending the clergy all at the same time. Therefore such drastic risks being taken by some thirty years old may take the state to the path of modernization or may devastate the condition further. So is the time ripe for KSA? We will see…
Ripple Effects on Pakistan:
The sudden changes in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have ripple effects on the whole of Middle East and beyond. KSA’s offensive policy towards Iran only aggravates KSA-Iran competition for seeking regional hegemony. Bin Salman considers Iran an “existential threat”, which posts intense complications for our dear homeland. Pakistan is Iran’s immediate neighbor, who is sanction-free since Nuclear Deal. While the KSA has been Pakistan’s ally for decades.
The increasing enmity between the two sharks of the region keeps Pakistan in an embezzled condition of foreign policy.
The formation of Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition, IMCTC, also called by many as the Arab NATO, only adds fuel to the fire. IMCTC has a clear objective of countering Iran, shown by the fact that neither Iran nor Iran’s allies are part of this Islamic Coalition, and Pakistan’s retired COAS heads the coalition. Such intense atmosphere puts our foreign policymakers under pressure of maintaining friendly ties with both states simultaneously, especially in the Bin Salman’s era.
Also, the recent social modernization in KSA and the call from political elite to embrace a moderate version of Islam sends ripple effects in the whole of the Muslim world. Many in conservative Muslim societies look up to KSA for their interpretation of religion. KSA also holds the symbolic importance of being the site of holy mosques. And, one cannot ignore that KSA sponsors a radical version of religion across the Muslim world to achieve its own strategic interests.
The sudden social abandonment of the same ideology, sponsored for decades, must send intense signals to the Middle East and beyond. Pakistan is no exception.
The Saudian radical ideology has been imported by our dear homeland for at least forty years. The sudden shift will have a ripple effect on our society as well. It’s too soon to tell how exactly the transformation will occur. Let us keep our fingers crossed.
