For two decades, the West has seen Afghanistan’s opium business as a big problem. It’s been responsible for most of the world’s heroin, causing addiction and crime, and turning Afghanistan into a corrupt place run by drug money. Now, the Taliban leaders are asking for help to stop this opium trade. This puts the West in a tricky situation, as they realize that dealing with this issue might lead to even worse problems – like a global crisis of people overdosing on drugs. Deciding what to do about the Taliban’s opium ban is a tough choice with many possible outcomes, and most of them are not good.

The Successful Opium Ban: Satellite images and research by David Mansfield, an expert with over 25 years of experience in Afghanistan’s opium sector, reveal the impressive success of the Taliban’s opium ban. In Helmand, Afghanistan’s largest opium-producing province, there has been a remarkable drop in poppy cultivation, from over 129,000 hectares in 2022 to just 740 hectares in April 2023. Similar reductions were seen in other opium-producing regions. This reduction is significant, considering the larger size of the opium industry compared to the 2000-2001 ban.

How the Ban Was Implemented and Economic Impact: The ban’s success can be attributed to the Taliban’s smart and evolving approach. Instead of eradicating mature poppy fields about to be harvested, which would have been met with resistance, they focused on the smaller spring and summer crops planted in 2022. Additionally, their crackdown on ephedra, a crucial ingredient in Afghanistan’s thriving methamphetamine industry, discouraged poppy planting for the 2022 fall season.

However, despite its achievements, the ban has caused a severe economic shock. Afghanistan’s rural economy is losing over $1 billion per year, as calculated by Mansfield. This loss is hitting poor wage laborers and sharecroppers the hardest, pushing them further into poverty and malnutrition.

International Response? The United Nations acknowledges the “severe and far-reaching” consequences of a heroin shortage while providing financial support to help Afghan farmers transition away from opium cultivation. Privately, governments harbor concerns that a crop shortage might tempt international traffickers to introduce deadly fentanyl into the global heroin supply. There are even suspicions that the Taliban might be using the ban as a political maneuver or potentially collaborating with drug cartels to inflate opium prices.

Keeping the Ban and What It Could Cause: Supporting the ban on opium in Afghanistan might lead to a war among the Afghan people and a lot of suffering. It could also cause more people to leave Afghanistan and even more people to die from drug overdoses than in North America. As the ban continues, the economic situation will worsen, particularly for middling farm households that will deplete their opium inventories. With limited coping mechanisms, these households may resort to selling remaining assets, forgoing healthcare, reducing food intake, or even sending family members abroad.

Ending the Ban and Its Problems: On the other hand, if we ask for the ban to be stopped, Afghanistan’s heroin industry – the biggest in the world – might start again, and things will go back to how they were before.

What Comes Next? The sustainability of the poppy ban is uncertain. Historically, maintaining opium bans in Afghanistan has proven difficult due to resistance. However, the Taliban’s persistent effort and political investment suggest that the ban may continue, extending economic shock and suffering.